THE POLLS say probably not. The Electoral College map says maybe.
Donald John Trump spent much of the election hovering around the low 40s at Real Clear Politics "General Election: Trump vs. Clinton." Last Tuesday, however, he reach 45. He had done that before, but never been able to extend his upward momentum. This time, for the first time, he held steady at 45 for three days, then dropped to 44 on Friday, where he remains today.
Hillary Diane Rodham Clinton, meanwhile, has been at 46 or above since late September, where she is today -- 2 points higher than Mr. Trump. If the polls or correct an not big, poll-rattling news breaks soon, the bet today is plain: Ms. Clinton will win the national popular vote.
She also leads in projections of the electoral vote at Real Clear Politics "No Toss Up States," 297-241.
To win, a candidate needs 270, so Ms. Clinton has a comfortable lead, for the moment.
But Mr. Trump is within striking distance. If he can hold all the states RCP now assigns to him -- and that is harder than it sounds -- and if he can then flip Florida (29) from Clinton to Trump, he wins. That's it. And that's doable.
Alternatively, he could hold his own and cobble together 29 from this list of vulnerable Clinton states: Pennsylvania (20), Michigan (16), Colorado (9), New Mexico (5), and Maine (2). Also doable.
Will he do it? Who knows, but the safer bet is that he cannot.
The hardest part is probably holding his own vulnerable states. Their are eight. Everyone that flips back to Ms. Clinton, if any do, narrows his already narrow path to victory. And if several of them flip, it's game, set, match.
There are three wild cards. One is that Mr. Trump has more support than the polls indicate, which is possible. The other is that so many early voters have already cast their ballot -- most when Ms. Clinton was riding higher in the polls and Mr. Trump was riding lower -- that it is already too late for Mr. Trump to win, even if he does better on election day than Ms. Clinton. The third is a breaking news story that sinks Ms. Clinton's chances. But if what we already know now doesn't disqualify her, what will? By now she's almost immune to bad news. Her supporters don't care what's she done. Just win, baby, win.
I'll check again Monday and Tuesday, my guess today is that Ms. Clinton will win. Mr. Trump has a path to victory, but it runs up a very steep hill.