STATE OF FEAR, Michael Crichton's 2004 novelization of our generation's greatest fiction, anthropogenic global warming.
"So," Kenner said, "global warming represents a threat to the world?"
Absolutely," Bradley said. "A threat to the whole world."
. . . .
"Crop failures, spreading deserts, new diseases, species extinction, all the glaciers melting, Kilimanjaro, sea-level rise, extreme weather, tornadoes, hurricanes, El Nino events --"
. . . .
"Actually, scientific studies do not support their claims. For example, crop failure -- if anything, increased carbon dioxide stimulates plant growth. . . . As for new diseases -- not true. The rate of emergence of new diseases has not changed since 1960."
. . . .
"Species extinction hasn't been demonstrated either. . . ."
. . . .
. . . . "There are one hundred sixty thousand glaciers in the world, Ted. About sixty-seven thousand have been inventoried, but only a few have been studied with any care. . . .
"Kilamanjaro is melting."
. . . .
"Actually, Kilamanjaro has been rapidly melting since the 1800s -- long before global warming. . . . So why is it melting?"
Sulking: "You tell me."
"Because of deforestation, Ted. The rain forest at the base of the mountains has been cut down, so the air blowing upward is no longer moist. Experts think that if the forest is replanted the glacier will grow again."
"That's [bs]."
"I'll give you the journal references." . . .
. . . .
"Sea level is indeed rising."
"Ah-hah!"
"As it has been for the last six thousand years, ever since the start of the Holocene. . . .
"But it's rising faster now."
"Actually, not."
"Satellites prove it."
"Actually, they don't."
"Computer models prove it's rising faster."
"Computer models can't prove anything, Ted. A prediction can't ever be proof -- it hasn't happened yet. And computer models have failed to accurately predict the last ten or fifteen years. But if you want to believe in them anyway, there is no arguing with faith. . . . ."
. . . .
"Look," Ted said, "you may enjoy putting me down, but the fact is, lots of people think there will be more extreme weather, including more hurricanes and tornadoes and cyclones, in the future."
"Yes, indeed, lots of people think so. But scientific studies do not bear them out. That's why we do science, Ted, to see if our opinions can be verified in the real world, or whether we are just having fantasies."
. . . .
. . . . "But the net economic effect of the last El Nino was a gain of fifteen billion dollars because of a longer growing season and less use of winter heating oil. That's after deducting $1.5 billion for flooding and excess rain in California. Still a net benefit."
"I'd like to see that study," Bradly said.
"I'll make sure you get it. Because of course it also suggests that if global warming really does occur, it will probably benefit most nations of the world."
"But not all."
"No, Ted. Not all."
(Michael Crighton, "To Los Angeles, Tuesday, October 12, 10:31 p.m.," State of Fear, Harper Collins (2004))
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