Handicapping is what degenerate horseplayers do.
Pride runs well in the backstretch, but Heartbreaks has the rail. My Tears might run today, but the jockey has a reputation for holding back. My Heart is out of the running. That kind of brainy stuff. I should know. I'm good at it. (Story for another day.)
Politics, of course, is also a horse race and we're whelmed with handicappers and track touts. One of the best is Sean Trende, senior elections analyst for RealClearPolitics. He handicapped Donald Trump the other day: "What to Make of Trump's Candidacy," realclearpolitics.com, August 11, 2015. Read the article for his argument about "four things . . . analysts should avoid until we get closer to the actual voting."
Meanwhile, here are some entertaining snips (my emphasis):
[The] Republican electorate is in a foul mood, vis-à-vis its leadership. Part of this owes to the fact that these leaders grossly overpromised what they could accomplish, even with Obama as president, in order to win the House and the Senate. Another part of this owes to the fact that when Republicans did hold all three branches of government, they probably moved the domestic policy needle leftward, leaving rank-and-file members to doubt their leaders' commitments to conservatism.
Right on! Conservatives see, correctly, how the Washington, D.C., policy ratchet works -- one click right, two clicks left; one click right, two clicks left; ad infinitum. Reagan was the last, and may well be the last ever, to push policy rightward. And even he left government larger than he found it.
Trump is a deeply flawed human being and even more deeply flawed political leader, certainly no conservative, but his combative language resonates with frustrated conservatives. They want someone to fight back, and Mr. Trump talks like a WWF wrestler before the big match. I'm gonna murderize that loser, then I'm gonna marry his wife, spend his money, and make his kids call me daddy
More from Mr. Trende:
Trump may lead in the polls, but it is a mistake, for now, to treat him as a true frontrunner.
Mr. Trende's main argument here is that frontrunners in years past yielded no President Lieberman, President Hillary (so far, at least, thank God), or President Perry. But he's quarrelling with language. Frontrunner means the runner who is front, and that's Mr. Trump.
His larger point is correct: that early frontrunners rarely win the race. Fair enough.
But I would argue that the reason Mr. Trump is unlikely to win the race is that as the other sixteen candidates fall out of the race -- with the possible exception of Mr. Cruz and, perhaps, Mr. Paul -- their supporters are unlikely to go to Mr. Trump. Most Republicans stranded by a conventional candidate will go to other conventional candidates. The true leader in the race today is Anybody But Trump with about 75 percent. It will take months to identify that Anybody, but he (or far less likely, she) is the likely winner.
Back to Mr. Trende:
If anything, the presence of Trump has brought millions of viewers to the Republican debates, giving a ton of free media to all the candidates, while making those candidates look moderate in temperament by comparison.
If Trump starts winning primaries, and looks to be the nominee, [other candidates well may shift their stances to pick off his voters]. But for the time being, the actual evidence that he is hurting Republicans simply isn't there.
Finally, this (which sounds right to me):
Let's say Republicans approach the convention with no candidate near a majority of delegates, and with Trump holding, say, 20 percent . . . .
At that point, the Republican nomination will be [a] matter of negotiation. Whatever else you want to say about Trump, he's an effective negotiator. That, I suspect, is why he hasn't ruled out a third party bid. Why would he? It's his trump card, so to speak, in these . . . discussions.
Mr. Trende is right, but again, it will be easy to construct a majority out of Anybody's combined 80 percent, without turning to Mr. Trump. The dangers, of course, are the possible third-party bid or, more likely, a very angry 20 percent of GOP delegates who, feeling disrespected, go home and sit out the election.
I don't believe the conspiracy theory that Mr. Trump is a Democrat operative, trying to blow up the GOP. But if he were, what would he do any differently?
* * *
Regardless of whether you love Mr. Trump or, like me, despise him, or -- better for your mental health -- fall somewhere in the middle, you need to read Karl Rove's brilliant takedown. It's a list of Mr. Trump's flip-flops: Liberal or conservative? Democrat or Republican? Single-payer or market-based alternative? Pro-choice or pro-life? Ban on "assault weapons" or Second Amendment? Hit the wealthy or a flat tax? Big political giver or campaign-finance hawk? Comprehensive immigration reform or fence against killers and rapists? (Karl Rove, "Which Donald Trump Will Debate? wsj.com, August 5, 2015.
The guy's a blowhard, an empty vessel, a self-reverential big mouth, immune to shame when shame is called for. I understand why some folks like him, but we've already had one Barack Hussein Obama. We don't need another one.