ALL ADDICTED POLL-WATCHERS know that Trump is first, Carson second, Rubio third, Cruz fourth, and Bush fifth, with the others fighting for the crumbs.
This is the order at the moment in Real Clear Politics "2016 Republican Presidential Nomination," Unca D's polling report of choice. This "poll of polls" has its technical peculiarities (see below), but it's great at showing trends and is way less volatile than individual polls.
If this stuff interests you, click the link and check the numbers yourself.
I looked at the report this morning to see . . .
. . . who's been rising and who's been falling over the last thirty days. The changes -- deltas in number-speak -- are consistent with conventional wisdom about who's up and who's down. But they are much smaller than you might have expected.
The big winner is Rubio, up three points (only three?) to 12 percent. (I'm suppressing the fractions, both in calculating and in reporting the deltas.)
Second place goes to Cruz, up two to 11 percent.
And third goes to Christie, up one to 3 percent).
Big losers, each down two points, are Carson (to 19 percent), Bush (to 5 percent), and Fiorino (to 3 percent).
Also down, each by one point: Huckabee (to 3 percent) and Paul to (2 percent).
Over in the Democrat contest over who's the biggest socialist, all three candidates with significant numbers are up -- Clinton by eight points (to 55 percent), Sanders by five (to 30 percent), and O'Malley by four (to 4 percent).
It is my habit, never yet broken, to vote in Democrat primaries, not Republican. I do this to provide at least one vote for any conservative or moderate who might appear on the ballot. Anyone who thinks America is, on balance, a better country than any other in the world, not in need of fundamental transformation.
Since no such Democrat has appeared on my ballot in recent memory, I then cast a default vote for whichever candidate is creating the biggest mischief in the race, such as LaRouchites, Greens, and candidates who appear to have mental-health issues. (Plenty of those.)
In the presidential primary this year, I plan to vote for the candidate who ranks highest in the polls and is not named Clinton. Hello, Mr. Sanders. We have a professed Democrat Socialist on my little street. The two of us may form the Fawn Creek socialist voting bloc. (Or it the proper word cell?)
I oppose all three Democrat frontrunners, of course, and with a passion. But political mischief-making is always fun.
What might change this plan is Mr. Trump. I have my GOP favorite -- Mr. Rubio -- and have sent him a small check, the first of several, I hope. I genuinely hope to cast a vote for him next November. But my passion for him is weak compared to my ardor for defeating Mr. Trump. The GOP has several good candidates and one appalling one.
If the Blustery One is on course to win Texas, I'll abandon my hereditary party, the Democrats -- it long ago abandoned me -- and vote, for the first time ever, in the Republican primary.
Now the technical stuff:
Spare me the moans about it just ain't right to average polls with different rules about who's polled, how many are polled, and so forth. This stuff surely pushes the averages off kilter a bit. Over time, however, the technical defects even out and give us a continuing report that levels the peaks and valleys, often meaningless, that characterize individual polls.
RCP's poll of polls is like a clock that keeps good time, except that it's always five minutes slow. It's not reliable about when to show up for work, but it can reliably tell you when an hour has passed.
Have a great Thanksgiving. Give thanks for our exquisite country. And pray for its good health.
Comments