. . . "Why I expect Sylvester Turner to win the runoff election."
Three tribes run Houston city politics. They have different goals and interests, but they learned long ago to cooperate for their greater good.
The first tribe is the law firms, engineers, bond houses, and contractors who want to build stuff with taxpayer money. Call them the Downtown Tribe, small in number but large in influence. Another large thing about them is how they live. And the third large thing is their campaign checks, skimmed off the public contracts they have received.
Public employees are the second tribe. Call them the City Unions Tribe. Members get paid, most of them, better than they could ever expect to be paid out in the world, and their job security and pensions are wonders to behold. They vote for the candidate most likely to keep the train filled with gravy. And their spouses vote. And their aunts and uncles. And their children. And their neighbors. And their dogs and goldfish and potted shrubbery. They even vote, wonder of wonders, in runoff elections. And they all vote exactly the same way.
The third tribe are black and brown political activists. Call them the Minorities Tribe. Leaders want in on the game, for themselves (primarily, I would say), but also as players in the old-fashioned game of carving up urban spoils. They want their clients get a big share, oversized if possible, of city jobs, grant money, community centers, and the like. They win a place at the Council of the Tribes with large turnouts of voters who are reliably left-of-center.
At the fringes of these Big Three are smaller tribes that feed off the table scraps of the big ones -- traditional labor unions (some money, a few more votes), tort lawyers (money), guilty white liberals (good for a few more votes and the endorsement of the Houston Chronicle), and Alinskyite radicals and progressives.
This last group is miniscule in number but surprisingly powerful, sort of like the Bolsheviks in 1917. The current mayor shares many, perhaps most, of the radical agenda, and Mr. Turner also counts them as friends. So does the Houston Chronicle editorial board. The Alinskyites are playing a long game. Their current demands are relatively small -- key jobs for a few radicals, grant money for "community" organizations run by their cadres, that sort of thing, while they seed the government payroll with cell members and win small council victories here and there.
Notice who is not a member of the Council of the Tribes: the Taxpayer Tribe. The folks who worry about the city's going broke. About pension promises that cannot be kept. About giveaways to sports franchises. About near-empty electric trains that cannot pay their way. About potholes that are never filled. About serving as animal sacrifices for the Big Three Tribes.
Conservatives win a few council seats, here and there, but they can't do much -- heck, they can't do anything -- to block the big spenders, except at the fringes of things. We have a strong-mayor form of government, and he or she who wields the gavel controls the agenda and the purse.
The Taxpayer Tribe will support Mr. King, of course -- though he has his own ties to the Downtown Tribe -- but without the keen enthusiasm of the general election. The bathrooms have been protected! No reason to worry now.
Warriors in the Big Three Tribes have no such hesitation. The duty to vote is almost religious, a sacrifice to the gods of Government and Other People's Money. I think these folks will turn out in big numbers and I think they will whup the lackadasical Taxpayer Tribe.
My record as a prognosticator is dismal, however, so let's hope I'm wrong again.
Why my long face? Because all sorts of folks called me for advice about how to vote in the general election. But no one -- not one person -- has called about the runoff.
I see this as an indicator of a bigger falloff in support for Mr. King than for Mr. Turner.
For those who care about my touts, however, they are:
MAYOR -- Bill King.
CONTROLLER -- Bill Frazer.
COUNCIL AT-LARGE 1 -- Mike Knox. Ex-military. Ex-cop. What's not to like? With the exception of the mayoral race, this is the most important contest on the ballot. Mr. Knox's opponent is a member in good standing of the Minorities Tribe. She appears to be a hard-working Catholic businesswoman and advocate for traditional black institutions, charities, and causes. Fair enough. The "tell" that she is holding better cards than you can ever guess is that she's associated with the Metropolitan Organization. That's the religious front group for Houston's own cell of Alinskyites. The Metropolitican Organization is a product of the Industrial Arts Foundation, the nationwide organization that embodies Mr. Alinsky's radical agenda. The IAF's goal, for Houston as well as for the United States, is fundamental transformation, not incremental reform. Mr. Knox's opponent is, I suspect, a well-meaning dupe. The Houston Chronicle endorsed her, of course. But under no circumstances should she be elected.
COUNCIL AT-LARGE 2 -- David Robinson. His opponent was a big cheese in the anti-HERO movement. Mr. Robinson is an architect, which makes him a real or potential member of the Downtown Tribe. Still, I like him.
COUNCIL AT-LARGE 4 -- Roy Morales. Not a lot to recommend him, in my view, except that his opponent is a bright young thing out of the law-firm branch of the Downtown Tribe. She is smart enough and energetic enough to be trouble for years to come. Better to vote for the good ol' boy, if only to keep her out of the game.
COUNCIL AT-LARGE 5 -- Jack Christie. About as conservative as we are likely to get. He almost won the first time. He should finish the job this time.
Now turn off your computer and go vote.
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