. . . John Kasich, up 7 points. Second is . . .
. . . Marco Rubio, up 5.
Third, Ted Cruz, up 1.
Ben Carson is unchanged. Donald Trump is fifth and last, down 3.
The absolute numbers, however, have Mr. Trump first (33 percent), Mr. Cruz second (20 percent), Mr. Rubio third (16 percent), Mr. Kasich fourth (9 percent), and Mr. Carson last (7 percent).
All numbers are from Real Clear Politics, "2016 Republican Presidential Nomination," RCP Average, as of this afternoon.
I am suppressing fractions and using integers. Fractions suggest a false precision in these numbers. Integers give us the big story.
The idea of checking a thirty-day frame is to see what has changed recently. This information is interesting, but probably not predictive.
As for the Dems, it's all fives.
Hillary Clinton leads Bernie Sanders by five, 47-42, but the thirty-day momentum is plus-five for Sanders and minus-five for Clinton.
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