. . . Donald John Trump's bounce in the polls appears to be real.
The only poll that matters is . . .
. . . Real Clear Politics: "General Election: Trump vs. Clinton." It has Ms. Clinton ahead 47-45. If this is true and if it holds, Ms. Clinton is beatable.
This is the first reliable sign that Mr. Trump has a chance. He has touched 45 twice before, once in late June and again in early October. Both times he stayed there about ten minutes before falling back, sharply. His big mouth, bad character, and small brain always brought him down. Is the third time the charm?
(For the record, Ms. Clinton is ahead by 3 in RCP's four-way screen -- 45-42. This suggests that the third-party candidates are hurting Mr. Trump more than Ms. Clinton.)
What really matters, of course, is the Electoral College. The numbers there still favor Ms. Clinton by a mini-landslide -- 304-234. The Electoral College is a trailing indicator in the RCP universe, however, so we need to wait. Can Mr. Trump find the 36 electoral votes he needs to win?
North Carolina (15) is doable, but what other states? I don't see the path forward. And it isn't even clear that Mr. Trump can hold the states he already claims.
(These numbers come from RCP's "Electoral College: No Toss Up States.")
One problem with all polls and this analysis, however, is that millions of Americans have already voted. Their votes were cast when numbers were far rosier for Ms. Clinton and far gloomier for Mr. Trump. We cannot know for certain what this means, but it may mean that Ms. Clinton has already locked away more votes than she might have gotten from the same voters if they had waited to cast ballots on November 8.
The next two or three days are critical. If Mr. Trump can catch up or, against all odds, go ahead, perhaps he could win.
Stand by.
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For newcomers, Unca D cites Real Clear Politics because it averages third-party polls. This approach raises all sorts of theoretical questions, but it has the virtue of squeezing the volatility out of the numbers. It allows us to ignore the polls that get all the yak-time on cable television -- the ones that bounce here and there and the outliers. Unca D also quotes only the integers in RCP's numbers. The fractions are meaningless. You could either round them up or down or, like Unca D, use integers. Want to do it another way? Do it yourself.
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