Over the five weeks through July 8 Harris County reported an average of . . .
. . . 4.85 deaths a day.
Over the seven days through July 8, the average fatality rate was 4.14 -- far fewer than five per day, trending downward.
The American Council on Science and Health reports that 80.713 percent of all Covid deaths are 65 or older. Almost 60 percent (59.962%) are 75 and up.
Applying these percentages in reverse to Harris County, then the death rate for the seven-day period through July 8 for residents under 65 was about 0.8 average deaths per day. For residents under 75, it was about 1.7 average deaths per day.
Harris County has suffered 407 Covid-19 fatalities from March 20 -- date of the first local Covid-19 death -- through July 8. That's 111 days. The daily average over this period is 3.66 deaths/day.
The local coronavirus death rate for the last five weeks, annualized, then measured against the estimated 4.713 million residents of Harris County yields an annualized individual death risk of 0.0003761, which translates to about 38 annual deaths per 100,000 residents.
Assuming the age-related differential mentioned above also holds for this number, that would yield an annualized death rate of about 14.5 per 100,000 for Harris Count residents under 75.
These are serious numbers. But do they justify euthanizing tens of thousands of local businesses, large and small, driving hundreds of thousands of local workers into unemployment, closing our local schools?
Want to check the arithmetic yourself? Start here: "Texas COVID-19: Trends by County: Daily New Fatalities in Harris County." Go here for the United States Census Bureau's estimate of the Harris County population.
If I got the data wrong or did the arithmetic wrong, let me know. I'll post a correction.
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