. . . Real Clear Politics (RCP) reports 44 percent overall job approval for President Trump.
This number is quite low. On its face, it casts a cloud over President Trump's prospect for reelection.
Buried in RCP's data, however, is a reasonably clear path to victory. Read on and see if you agree with Unca D that Mr. Trump not only can win, but probably will win.
If nothing else, you will see why Mr. Biden has scurried out of his basement and started campaigning more aggressively.
Reminders and caveats:
Unca D relies on "President Trump Job Approval" at mid-afternoon today. (By the time you check this link, the data will probably have changed.) RCP averages the most recent job approval numbers from recent polls by the likes of Rasmussen, Politico, Quinnipiac, ABC News, Fox News, and Gallup.
To simplify, Unca D also ignores fractions—here 44.2—and reports only the whole numbers—here 44. It's false precision, in my view, to count the loose change.
Finally, Unca D ignores a multitude of technical complaints about the usefulness of averaging numbers from polls that use different techniques, questions, and sample designs. So what? RCPs poll-of-the-polls is more reliable, in the aggregate, than many constituent polls, some of which are notoriously volatile and wildly out of step with the RCP consensus. Whatever its flaws, conceptually, RCP's job-approval number brings stability to the numbers and more reliably (in my opinion) reveals polling trends than most individual polls.
Why is his approval number so low?
First, his numbers have always been low. He has never topped 50 percent. Near the end of his first year in office (December 2017), he bottomed out at 37 percent. Afterward, his numbers zigzagged steadily upward. This April, they reached a high of 47 percent—within striking distance of the elusive 50 percent.
To say his job approval has always been low, of course, is no answer to why his number is so low today. It just poses a larger question: Why has his job approval always been low?
There are a lot of possible answers. The most likely, in my view, are his aggressive personality, extraordinarily unfair reporting by mainstream American journalists, and the Russia hoax and other unlawful opposition by high-ranking officers of the United States government.
The least likely, in my view, is that he has failed in office. If the accomplishments of Donald Trump could ever be separated from the person of Donald Trump, most fair-minded observers—even those who disagree politically—would probably say he has been an effective president. Lower taxes. Higher employment (pre-Covid, of course). Excellent judges. Peace between Israel and the U.A.E. Victory over ISIS. And more.
The second reason for the president's low number today is the coronavirus. By mid-July, the pandemic had dropped his job approval six points, to 41. He has now recovered one-half of that loss, to 44.
If his job approval holds at 44 percent, can he win reelection?
Probably not. The real question, of course, is not how he is doing nationally but how he is doing in a sufficient number of individual states to win the Electoral College. But the two go together: A candidate with 44 percent national job approval probably cannot win enough individual states.
Could his real job approval be higher than 44 percent?
Yes. It could be and it is. His real job approval today is not 44 percent; it's 46 percent.
How do I know? Because most of the polls on the RCP screen are registered voters. Only five are likely voters. Polls of likely voters, historically, report better numbers for Republicans than do polls of registered voters.
President Trump's average job approval on the five polls of likely voters is 46. His average job approval on the seven polls of registered voters is 42 percent.
Here's the stunner, the thing that probably best explains why Mr. Biden suddenly began to campaign more aggressively: Mr. Trump's average job approval in two polls of likely voters that closed in September (Rasmussen and Emerson) is 50 percent. His average on three polls of likely voters that closed in August (Quinnipiac, Grinnell/Selzer, and CNBC/Change Research) is 43 percent.
If Mr. Trump's 50 percent holds in future polls of likely voters, I believe he will win. But we cannot be sure how reliable the 50 percent number is today. It is based on only two polls. Nor can we be sure that, even if it is reliable, it will hold for sixty days.
Assuming the 50 percent number is trustworthy, is it possible that Mr. Trump's real job approval number is even higher?
Yes, absolutely. I believe Mr. Trump has many supporters who do not show up in the polls. Put another way, I believe pollsters systematically under-count Trump voters. Many of my fellow Trump supporters believe this is intentional. I'm less certain, but don't rule it out.
But I believe to a near certainty that many Trump voters refuse to answer polls. Why? Because the intolerant American left has been so successful in demonizing Trump voters—as racists and irredeemable deplorables, in one famous iteration—that Mr. Trump's fans have simply stopped identifying themselves to strangers on the telephone.
I never answer polls and recommend to my friends that they also refuse. The principal reason is that most "polls" are really "canvasses." An honest poll is a search for the truth about public opinion. Canvasses, which mask themselves as polls, are efforts by political activists to identify supporters, fence-sitters, and opponents. The activists want this information so they can better target their advertising to potential voters and design more effective get-out-the-vote campaigns.
In addition, canvassers may sound like pollsters when the call begins, but by the end they are trying to change opinions, not collect them. "Would you still support President Trump if you learned that he eats puppies for snacks?" "Could I send you some material about his well-known appetite for young dogs?"
Talking to canvassers also gets your name and number on curated voter lists. The canvassing companies sell that information to political parties and candidates.
Answering a canvasser will encourage even more political calls, not fewer.
Just say no.
Who will win the election?
I don't know and neither do you. What I believe, but do not know, is that Mr. Trump will win.
If his job approval among likely voters holds at 48 percent or higher and I am right about how many potential Trump voters are being missed by the pollsters, he could hardly lose an honest election—the honesty being a separate and very important issue.
Because Democrats are so heavily concentrated in a handful of states—New York, California, Massachusetts, Illinois—a Republican with a high approval rating should have a strong advantage in the Electoral College.
Useful trivia:
The job approval number for President Obama on September 4, 2012, was 47 percent. That is three points higher than Mr. Trump's corresponding job approval today. On election day, the Obama-Biden ticket collected 51.1 percent of the popular vote.
Why Unca D is happy to see Mr. Biden on the campaign trail.
Every time he tries and fails to form a coherent sentence, he helps Mr. Trump.
Every time he has a heart-to-heart meeting with a known, rabid anti-Semite, as he did yesterday, he helps Mr. Trump.
Every time he tries to reconcile today's Biden policy with yesterday's Biden policy on domestic terrorism, fracking, defunding the police, or anything else, he helps Mr. Trump.
Keep it up, Joe!
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